Many of us in the technology business get asked about what is going to happen to with Apple, the iPhone, Facebook and Google all the time. My don’t-put-me-on-the-spot response is: “Well nothing happens in 5 years, but everything happens in 10”.
That’s weak! So, unlike all those other predictions for 2012 that are for the whole year, I’m going to layout the 2012 technology world like a holiday dinner table in the 2012 Monthly Technology Predictions Calendar.
There is no need to worry about what is going to happen next year, the following month-by-month 2012 predictions will leave no doubt to the future.
My record you ask?
In 2011, I projected iPad unit sales more accurately and aggressively than Bloomberg. I correctly predicted that TV would become an App in 2011.
But... I predicted that Apple would release the iPad 3 in September and that the Google TV would get it right the 2nd time around. I also predicted that 2011 would be known as the year of the Netflix “brownout”. None of these things happened.
Let’s call it 50:50 for 2011.
For 2012, I’m putting it all out there, month-by-month:
1. What ever is hyped by the media at Consumer Electronics Show (CES) this January will be forgotten by the end of the month. My prediction: 3D Phones. This prediction is worth a possible 2 points. One for the thing hyped and the other for the thing forgotten in February.
2. iPad sales for the Dec. quarter are announced at 14.5M units and iPhone at 30M.
3. We forget what all the hype was about at CES show the previous month.
4. Mid-Season TV launches and the Academy Awards bring on a new record social TV interaction to knock off current record holder MTV music awards. Acamedy Awards at the end of February sets new viewership records as well.
5. iPad 3 with Retinal display, higher rez camera, and better video camera features launches.
6. Amazon Fire hit 6M units first over 6 months.
7. Siri search becomes #2 search engine in U.S.
8. iPhone 5 is launched with same size screen as current model despite many rumours to the contrary. When you ask the iPhone why its screen is not bigger, Siri recommends an iPad.
9. Movie Theatre’s Tweet Seats expand throughout theatre as many theatre goers can’t resist finding out what local tweeters are saying about the movie they are watching.
10. Nobody can figure out what is going on at Google. YouTube traffic continues to climb. Comscore and Neilsen claim that online video is suffering and TV is thriving.
11. Three models of Apple HD televisons are launched (they don’t require a stand - they float in mid-air held up by cloud computing) OR AirPlay is launched in Samsung televisions.
12. If the latter, the world now knows what Steve Jobs had figured out - the remote control. Thank you Steve. I love the remote controls Apple built for me.
13. Apple TV App Store launches. HBOGo shows Netflix that content is king.
14. We find out that Apple and Samsung were locked in negotiations for over 1 year to have Airplay installed in Samsung televisions, but Samsung refused... or didn’t (see September for the result).
15. Amazon rushes Fire set-top box product to market based on Fire Tablet. Google TV tries again.
16. Amazon becomes #2 tablet and set-top seller. Samsung either grows #1 television seller position or sees a 30% reduction (due to new Apple television sets) in the U.S. for the last quarter of 2012.
17. New and larger iPod Touch / Smaller iPad is not released until 2013.
18. Apple sells 350M iOS devices in 2012.
19. Amazon sells 20M Fire devices in 2012.