By now, the rumour mill's churning has solidified a few things: the new iPhone will largely be similar to the iPhone 4 on the outside, with most of the changes happening on the inside, like a faster processor and possibly improved camera.
Assuming the widely anticipated September released date is accurate, The Wall Street Journal reported earlier today that Apple has plans to sell 25 million of its next-gen iPhones by the year's end.
I've noticed other blogs and media sites picking up this stat in their hands and dropping their jaws—how can they be so audaciously aggressive? Except it's really not at all. In fact, that's probably Apple's minimum goal and only because its suppliers and manufacturers will struggle to keep up with demand.
Comparing Apples to Androids, you'll notice that in June, over 500,000 Android handsets were activated daily. And at a grow rate of more than four percent per week, this number could climb as high as 600,000 by the end of this month.
Obviously Apple has but one device to Android's dozens, but Apple consumers are different than Android consumers in that they don't require as much choice. Most don't want a bunch of different iPhone models. They want just one. They want the iPhone.
Let's run some really basic numbers. Say the iPhone drops in mid-September. That leaves three and a half months, or about 105 days, until year's end. To achieve 25 million sales, Apple needs to sell about 238,000 devices per day—or less than half of Android.
Given that Apple's North American mobile market share has risen while Android's has decline since Verizon adopted the iPhone in the U.S., achieving half of Android's numbers seems entirely possible.
The next-gen iPhone is expected to have an 8-megapixel camera, be thinner and lighter (though i feel like it's already plenty thin and light enough), and a superior processing chip, among other potential upgrades.
The device may be delayed, according to sources cited in the WSJ, because the iPhone is "difficult to assemble" and Apple's demands are unreasonably high.