Nine months ago I penned a set of month-by-month predictions for 2012 on Techvibes. I contemplated iPad unit sales, Apple TV possibilities, the mini iPad, Samsung/Apple disputes, social TV and search. Today we're having a closer look at how I did.
I predicted that whatever was hyped at CES would be forgotten. I simply can’t remember what was hyped at CES, so I must be right.
I was within 95% on iPad unit sales for the December quarter. That was about 10% more accurate than Bloomberg. I was 7 million low on 37 million iPhone sales, but still 15% more accurate than RBC and other analysts. It helps that I have access to data from hundreds of apps and millions of installs to make these sales estimates.
The Academy Awards and the MTV Music Awards did set new viewership and social TV interaction records in February, but that was an easy prediction. The most interesting social TV experiment in early 2012 was the Superbowl. Where analysis showed us that an during the Superbowl 98 million users were tapping away in apps and 111 million said to be watching the Superbowl on TV. More detailed analysis shows that during the game the only time users were not predominantly multi-tasking with apps was during Madonna’s half-time show.
Of course, Apple released its retina display iPad. It can’t release an Apple TV without rezzing up the iPhone and iPad first. I predicted this for April and Apple released in March. I also predicted that Amazon would have sold 6 million Kindle Fire units in April. That number was not reached until late August. It took Amazon 9 months to sell 6 million in 2011 and 2012. Apple took 5 months in 2010.
Ok, I was optimistic about Siri becoming #2 search engine in US by May. Let’s just say I’m off by a month... or year or so on that one. Search remains dominated by Google and nothing has changed in 2012.
I called the iPhone 5 launch for for June-tember. That is clearly September 12th now, not June.
I predicted that movie theatre tweet seats would see an expansion and it appears that 2012 is the year for live theatre tweet seat expansion - not movie theatre. Also live sports (London Olympics) and concerts and festivals see an expansion. Watch for this to go way beyond tweets with live pictures and video too.
I predicted that: “Nobody can figure out what is going on at Google. YouTube traffic continues to climb. Comscore and Neilsen claim that online video is suffering and TV is thriving.”
Just last week, my friend Jim Louderback writes: Why Are YouTube Users Abandoning Ship?
To Flurry Analytics the issue is very straightforward - Mobile Apps. According to Flurry time spent viewing video on Google sites was down in the first quarter of 2012 almost 50 minutes per active user. Video apps usage up 82 minutes per active user in the first quarter of 2012.
September - December 2012
Mobile and apps are having massive impacts. Mobile app developers have an inside view of this ongoing change. Mobile apps are changing the way we watch TV, enjoy live concerts, sporting events, and view video.
If predictions hold, Apple and Samsung work out some compromise on TV and Airplay, Apple does not release a larger iPod/smaller iPad, or an Apple TV set. Given current rumours, the first ever Month-by-Month Technology Predictions may have a rough quarter.
The technology that impacts on where we watch TV, how we read, search the web, pay for things, and go to the movies may be released in the final 3 months of 2012. We will start to see what iPhone maps are like without Google, where the Apple/Samsung battle goes next, and what various international companies have in mind for mobile payments. Lots of material for 2013 Predictions.